FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
cod. 1006726

Academic year 2022/23
2° year of course - First semester
Professor
- Carlo ROSA - Giovanni VERGA
Academic discipline
Economia politica (SECS-P/01)
Field
Economico
Type of training activity
Characterising
63 hours
of face-to-face activities
9 credits
hub: PARMA
course unit
in ENGLISH

Learning objectives

Knowledge and understanding The student:
-will learn to understand the main current financial and credit phenomena and key measures taken by ECB since 2007.
-will learn to evaluate what is happening on financial and credit markets, and to evaluate central bank interventions.

Applying knowledge and understanding)
-Learning about specialized tools of finance for the analysis of macroeconomic models at advanced level.

Making judgments
-Ability to assess and make independent evaluations about findings of analysis financial sector and central bank actions.

Communication skills
-Ability to draw up and present criticism of financial and credit markets, the crisis in these markets and central bank solutions.

Learning skills.
-Ability to present complex topics concisely using formal language, description and examination of institutional phenomena

Prerequisites

- - -

Course unit content

The course is divided into two parts. The first (28 hours)is held by prof. Giovanni Verga
The first part of the course presents some financial theories with their applications and describes the monetary policy of the ECB:

- The main concepts of efficiency in finance. Price, return and expectations
- Equilibrium Asset returns and prices
- A test for information arbitrage efficiency
- Fundamental valuation efficiency and rational bubbles
- Risky bond yields
- Interaction between American and European Interest Rates
- Expectations and Central bank communications
- The impact of heterogeneous expectations on price formation
- Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
- Money growth and inflation
- The ECB's monetary policy in the last years (quantitative easing QE, pandemic period, recent inflation)

Full programme

- - -

Bibliography

-FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: Prof. Giovanni Verga, a.a. 2022-23, “Dispensa n.1”
-FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: Prof. Giovanni Verga, a.a. 2022-23, “Dispensa n.2”
-FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: Prof. Giovanni Verga, a.a. 2022-23, “Dispensa n.3 ECB’s Monetary Policy”
Dispense will be available on the course website

Teaching methods

Acquisition of knowledge: class lectures and discussions of concrete problems

Acquisition of the ability to apply knowledge: discussion of financial and credit issues and Central Bank’s interventions

Acquisition of judgment:
During the course students will be encouraged to link theory to real world of finance and credit and to discuss the various possible monetary policy interventions to tackle the economic crisis

Acquisition of learning skills:
for each topic students will start from a description of the problem and critically analyse solutions.

Assessment methods and criteria

Written exam with possible oral integration at the discretion of the teacher.

The maximum final score for the first part of the course is 30/30 and will be calculated in the following way:

- Knowledge, ability to apply knowledge, and autonomy of judgment will be ascertained with the answers to two open questions, each divided into several specific points, which will be evaluated up to 15 points.
-The ability to communicate with appropriate technical language will be ascertained through the formal precision of the answers.
- Any oral integration will serve to clarify some doubtful points in the answers.

The overall score is given by the average of the scores of the first and second part of the course.

The final mark will be 30 cum laude when all the parts of the exam (written text or oral exposition; teamwork or other forms of cooperative work) are excellent for completeness, clarity, brightness, vividness and organization of the answers, capacity of multidisciplinary connections

Other information

the detailed program is available in Elly